My predictions for the American Presidential Election year
It’s the first weekend of November 2011; we’ve been talking about the Republican presidential race for the past six months and we still have a full year to go before the real deal. Anyone sick and tired of it all already? For three years we’ve witnessed the do little Democrats and the do nothing Republicans fight it out in the Senate and House as if the election was tomorrow. I can only assume this year; with unlimited ammunition being donated from corporations and two vocal, but leaderless grassroots organizations… there will be blood!
Let’s start off with the Republican presidential nomination. You have the Texas Executioner (Rick Perry), the womanizing pizza man (Herman Cain), the flip-flopping Mormon (Mitt Romney), Mr. don’t Google me (Rick Santorum), the anti-gay dragon-lady (Michele Bachmann), the technocrat (Jon Huntsman) and of course the token libertarian (Ron Paul). The front running Republicans might sound like they belong at some kind of WWE event, but no, they’re running for president of the United States. You also have Newt, Buddy and a few other candidates, but no one really cares about them, so screw ’em.
My early prediction is that the Mitt comes out on top. He won’t win because he seems to be the sanest of the bunch, he won’t even win because he’s the most electable. He is going to win because he has mastered what every politician should learn early on, and that’s the ability to change stances, to flip-flop on policy. No other republican candidate can do this effectively as their opinions are tied to their right-wing Christian beliefs, Mitt Romney would rather hide from his religious cult… I mean Mormonism.
So sometime next year we’ll be left with Mitt “flip-flopping” Romney, the Republican nominee to face off against the Kenyan born, gay lovin’ Black Muslim Communist better known as President Barack Obama. What happens between these two patriots is anyone’s guess as it depends on who they cater to most.
After the American Supreme Court sided with Citizens United a couple years back, it was made clear that corporate influence in this election (and the many to follow) will be more dominant than ever. Both sides could raise billions, but these actions will clearly favor Romney. The Mitt will have the support of the Tea Baggers whether Romney caters to them or not, because none of them will vote for the “socialist” Obama. On the other hand, if Barack Obama tries to satisfy the 99% of the Occupy Wall Street movement (as he should), but at the same time takes in millions of corporate donations from the 1%, it could all backfire on him.
Romney has a few other things going for him, the first being the acts of certain Republican state governors in historically “blue states” who are trying to change the state Electoral College rules that would favor a Republican candidate in a close race. Romney also has the desolate shape of the economy going for him; no President has ever won re-election with the unemployment rate above 9%.
The odds might seem like they’re stacked against the current President, but that’s what they said back when he ran for the Democratic nomination. He still has passion, vision and the ability to speak in complete sentences. Obama could still conceivably win with a high unemployment rate; most Americans are sick of war, most still have the Bush/Cheney hangover and many of the 99% crowd will vote for Obama regardless of donations simply because he is the lesser of two evils.
If you were a anticipating a prediction on the outcome of the election on my part, I have to say that I’ve been following politics too long to know that the political sails of any nation can shift in a heartbeat. No one can say for sure what kind of impact the Corporations, the 99% movement or the Tea Party movement will have on this election, it seems the sails have gone into uncharted waters. I will predict this however: no matter how the election is fought and won, it won’t be on actual policy issues, issues are an American political afterthought.