Back in June, well before the Democratic Party nominated the former Vice-President for the top job, Trump in the midst of a blown pandemic and racial justice response found himself well behind in the polls. Now, with less than a month to go till the election, and following Trump’s terrible debate performance, Joe Biden has a huge lead.
Biden’s lead, under normal circumstances wouldn’t just spell victory, but would indicate a complete blowout. A new NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll has Biden up by 14 points. 53 percent to 39 percent. The poll was taken after the first debate, but before Trump was diagnosed with Covid-19.
To put Biden’s lead into perspective, the last time a candidate had that big of an advantage leading up to an election was back in 1984. That year saw a Republican winning 48 States. Ronald Reagan went on to such a crushing victory that it haunts Democrats to this day.
With men over the age of fifty years old, a demographic Trump won in 2016 by thirteen percent, Biden is only behind by a single percentage point. As for that all important suburban women category, Biden’s lead is up to 25 percent. Any way you look at it, Sleepy Joe is alive and kicking and crushing it.
Of course, these aren’t normal times. We have an election taking place in the middle of a pandemic between a fascist, desperate to cling to power, and a neo-liberal Democrat that inspires Wall Street more than Main Street. Who knows what can happen in thirty days?
For instance, Trump is sure to get a boost once he recovers from the Corona-virus. Yes, he downplayed the pandemic from the start and cost thousands of lives, but while he definitely got what he deserved in the end, it may actually help him temporarily right when it counts.
A few months ago, as far-right nationalists around the world struggled with Covid-19, Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro and the U.K.’s Boris Johnson both tested positive for the disease. Johnson was even hospitalized. Still, despite their respective bungling of the disease in their countries, both of them got a significant bounce in approval ratings following their recovery. Expect Trump to receive the same… kudos for living.
Future Trump/Biden debates are also in doubt. Judging by his first performance, that would suit the President just fine. His phony bologna far-left attacks at the center of his campaign strategy have fallen flat. You just can’t paint Biden as both sleepy and radical at the same time.
You also have to consider that the love for Biden is not as well spread out as it was for Reagan all those years ago. Biden Republicans live mostly in States that are already blue. Reagan Democrats lived everywhere.
Although Biden’s lead is significant in many battle-ground States, the Electoral College could change things. The problem arises with mail in voting and other voter suppression measures taking place. The effect of which won’t be known until it’s too late.
In Pennsylvania, a state where Democrats forced the Green Party off the ballot, their voter suppression tactics might come back to haunt them in a big way. Republicans have returned the favor by asking the courts to change ballot rules. In addition, there are disputes over poll watchers, new voting machines, and massive disinformation campaigns. This key swing State is set to be more of a roller-coaster.
So, take Joe Biden’s lead in the polls with a grain of salt, a dash of pepper and a whole lot of doubt. We don’t live in 1984 anymore, though it certainly feels like we do. if you catch my meaning… VOTE.